Weekend winners ready for a break

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/28/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wise Dan and To Honor and Serve each came out of their stakes victories over the Thanksgiving weekend in good shape. The two now are deserving of vacations to rest and get ready for 2012 campaigns.

Wise Dan, owned by Morton Fink, captured Friday's Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs and at Aqueduct it was To Honor and Serve putting away the competition down the stretch in the Cigar Mile.

"He came out of the race in perfect shape," Wise Dan's trainer Charles Lopresti said. "He's 100 percent.

"We'll let him wind down (at Keeneland) and then take him to our farm in Lexington. He'll have the whole month of December off and some of January and then we'll start getting him ready for a five-year-old campaign."

The Clark Handicap win on Friday gave Wise Dan the distinction of now winning stakes on three different surfaces: turf, dirt and synthetic.

"He can run on any surface at different distances, so we have a lot of options with him," Lopresti said. "Most likely we will bring him back in the Commonwealth at Keeneland like we did this year."

Lopresti also trains Woodbine Mile winner and Breeders' Cup Mile runner-up Turallure and Successful Dan, Wise Dan's older half-brother, who was disqualified from first to third in last year's Clark. Successful Dan was unable to race in 2011 due to a tendon injury.

"I was able to keep Turallure and Wise Dan apart this year, but I don't know if I can keep them all apart next year," Lopresti said. "It'll be tough and a couple of them may have to go in the same race. But this is a good problem to have. It's been a dream year and if next year is half as good as this one, then I'll be thrilled.

"Successful Dan is at our farm and gallops about five days a week. We'll keep doing that for awhile and then get more serious with him in January or February. Look for him in the spring."

To Honor and Serve looked capable of winning by more than the 1 3/4-lengths margin of victory on Saturday. He covered the mile in 1:33.89.

"He's good," said trainer Bill Mott's assistant, Leana Willaford about Cigar Mile champ To Honor and Serve. "He'll get a little freshening and then join us back at Payson (Park)."

To and Honor Serve, owned by Live Oak Plantation, is scheduled to have a four- year-old season at the racetrack after proving himself one of the top three- year-olds this year.

"He's obviously more mature, maybe a little taller and longer," Willaford noted. "He hasn't really gotten more muscular, but that will come hopefully next year; he's still growing. Even from the spring until the last three weeks training here (Belmont Park) since the Breeders' Cup, he's just really, really been doing well and settling in. His gallops have gotten more controlled. He's getting it."

Mott's charge proved himself against older company in the Cigar and was a respectable seventh in the Breeders' Cup Classic behind another Mott horse Drosselmeyer. The colt also won comfortably two months ago in the Pennsylvania Derby.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year

Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.

Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.

Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to bet on the NBA. With the regular season about to hit the homestretch, it is important to point out that MySportsbook.com has the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.